纺织学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (06): 131-137.

• 管理与信息化 • 上一篇    下一篇

支持供应链快速响应的服装流行指数预测模型

张革伕; 徐 琪   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-06-15 发布日期:2009-06-15

Popularity-index forecasting model for supporting apparel supply-chain quick response

ZHANG Gefu; XU Qi   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-06-15 Published:2009-06-15

摘要: 为了有效地预测服装在市场上的流行状态,建立了一种新的时间序列预测乘法模型。通过流行指数描述任意款服装产品在市场上的状态,定义市场状态的3个描述量:接受度、趋势和生命周期。模型综合了服装本身、市场环境以及消费者自身的特征对服装需求的影响,讨论了日均指数函数、人流周期特征函数、价格作用函数、趋势函数、季节性产品需求特征函数等模型组成子函数,并通过算例和计算机仿真进行了模型验证与预测解释。

Abstract: In order to forecast the popular state of new products in apparel market, this paper built a new kind of forecasting multiply model based on time series. Through describing the market state of any new apparel products, this paper defines three representation variables, such as acceptance ratio, trend and life cycle. Many factors such as apparel itself, market environment and customer themselves’ characters are comprehensively considered when evaluate those characters which influence market demand. All sub-functions are discussed, including day-mean index, people flow cycle features, the functions such as price influence, trend and demand on seasonal products. And, through a calculation example and computer simulation, this model is verified and the meaning of forecasting is interpreted.

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